Elsword Reforge Cost & Probability
Calculation Results
This calculator estimates the average resources required to reach your target Reforge level based on the provided success rate. Remember that actual results may vary due to the probabilistic nature of reforging.
| Level | Expected Attempts (Cumulative) | Expected ED (Cumulative) | Expected Scrolls (Cumulative) |
|---|
Cumulative Expected Cost by Reforge Level (ED)
What is Elsword Reforge?
In the popular action MMORPG, Elsword, the reforge system is a crucial enhancement mechanic that allows players to significantly boost their equipment's stats. Applied primarily to weapons and armor, reforging adds powerful, unique stat lines that can drastically improve a character's combat capabilities. Unlike traditional enhancement (which increases attack/defense values), Reforge focuses on specific attributes like All Skill Damage, Boss Damage, or Critical Damage, making it a cornerstone for optimizing character builds and achieving higher Combat Power (CP).
The process involves using Reforge Scrolls and in-game currency (ED) to attempt to increase an item's Reforge Level, typically ranging from 0 to 20. Each successful level-up grants a boost to the item's Reforge stats. However, the system is probabilistic, meaning success is not guaranteed, and failures can consume valuable resources. This is where an Elsword Reforge Calculator becomes indispensable, helping players budget their resources and understand the potential investment.
Who Should Use This Elsword Reforge Calculator?
- New Players: To understand the long-term investment required for endgame gear.
- Experienced Players: To plan their reforge attempts, compare different strategies, and optimize resource allocation.
- Budget-Conscious Players: To estimate ED and scroll costs and avoid overspending.
- Theorycrafters: To model different success rates and their impact on overall efficiency.
Elsword Reforge Formula and Explanation
The core of the Elsword Reforge system, for the purpose of cost estimation, revolves around the concept of expected value in probability. While the actual game mechanics involve RNG, we can calculate the average number of attempts needed to achieve a certain outcome.
The primary formula used in this Elsword Reforge Calculator is based on the expected number of trials for a Bernoulli process (a sequence of independent experiments, each with a success/failure outcome).
Expected Attempts for a Single Level Up:
Expected Attempts = 1 / (Success Rate / 100)
For example, if the success rate is 20%, you would expect 1 / (20/100) = 1 / 0.20 = 5 attempts on average to achieve one successful reforge.
Total Expected Attempts to Reach Target Level:
This calculator assumes a constant success rate across all levels for simplicity and general applicability. Therefore, the total expected attempts are the sum of expected attempts for each individual level-up.
Total Expected Attempts = (Target Level - Current Level) * (1 / (Success Rate / 100))
Total Expected Cost (ED or Scrolls):
Total Expected Cost = Total Expected Attempts * Cost per Attempt
Variables Table:
| Variable | Meaning | Unit | Typical Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Reforge Level | The starting Reforge level of your equipment. | Levels (unitless) | 0 - 20 |
| Target Reforge Level | The desired Reforge level for your equipment. | Levels (unitless) | 1 - 20 |
| Success Rate per Attempt | The probability of a single reforge attempt succeeding. | Percentage (%) | 1% - 100% |
| Cost per Attempt (ED) | The average Elsword Denars (in-game currency) spent per reforge attempt. | ED | 100,000 - 1,000,000+ |
| Cost per Attempt (Scrolls) | The number of Reforge Scrolls consumed per attempt. | Scrolls (unitless) | 1 - 1 |
Practical Examples
Example 1: Basic Reforge from 0 to 10
Let's say you have a new weapon (Reforge Level 0) and want to reach Reforge Level 10. You know the base success rate is 20%, and each attempt costs 500,000 ED and 1 Reforge Scroll.
- Inputs: Current Level = 0, Target Level = 10, Success Rate = 20%, Cost per Attempt (ED) = 500,000, Cost per Attempt (Scrolls) = 1
- Calculation:
- Levels to gain: 10 - 0 = 10
- Expected attempts per level: 1 / (20/100) = 5 attempts
- Total Expected Attempts: 10 levels * 5 attempts/level = 50 attempts
- Total Expected ED Cost: 50 attempts * 500,000 ED/attempt = 25,000,000 ED
- Total Expected Scrolls: 50 attempts * 1 scroll/attempt = 50 scrolls
- Results: Expected Total ED Cost: 25,000,000 ED, Expected Total Attempts: 50, Expected Total Scrolls: 50.
Example 2: Higher Level Reforge with Lower Success Rate
Now, consider you have an item at Reforge Level 15 and want to push it to Level 18. At these higher levels, the success rate might feel lower, or perhaps you're using cheaper scrolls with a lower base chance. Let's assume a 10% success rate and a cost of 750,000 ED per attempt and 1 Reforge Scroll.
- Inputs: Current Level = 15, Target Level = 18, Success Rate = 10%, Cost per Attempt (ED) = 750,000, Cost per Attempt (Scrolls) = 1
- Calculation:
- Levels to gain: 18 - 15 = 3
- Expected attempts per level: 1 / (10/100) = 10 attempts
- Total Expected Attempts: 3 levels * 10 attempts/level = 30 attempts
- Total Expected ED Cost: 30 attempts * 750,000 ED/attempt = 22,500,000 ED
- Total Expected Scrolls: 30 attempts * 1 scroll/attempt = 30 scrolls
- Results: Expected Total ED Cost: 22,500,000 ED, Expected Total Attempts: 30, Expected Total Scrolls: 30.
As you can see, even for fewer levels, a lower success rate significantly increases the expected attempts and cost.
How to Use This Elsword Reforge Calculator
Using the Elsword Reforge Calculator is straightforward and designed to give you quick, actionable insights:
- Enter Current Reforge Level: Input the Reforge level your equipment currently possesses. If it's a new item, this will typically be 0.
- Enter Target Reforge Level: Specify the Reforge level you aim to reach. This calculator supports levels up to 20, the current common maximum.
- Input Success Rate per Attempt (%): This is the most critical variable. Enter the base success rate percentage for one reforge attempt. This value can vary based on the type of Reforge Scroll used or temporary in-game buffs.
- Input Cost per Reforge Attempt (ED): Enter the amount of Elsword Denars (ED) you expect to spend on average for each single reforge attempt. This might include the cost of the scroll itself if bought from the market, or other materials.
- Input Cost per Reforge Attempt (Reforge Scrolls): Typically, this will be '1' as one scroll is used per attempt, but it's included for flexibility if future game mechanics change.
- View Results: As you adjust the inputs, the calculator will automatically update the "Expected Total ED Cost," "Expected Total Attempts," and "Expected Total Scrolls."
- Interpret the Table and Chart: The table provides a level-by-level breakdown of cumulative costs, while the chart visualizes the cumulative ED cost, helping you see the progression of investment.
- Use the "Copy Results" Button: Easily copy all key calculated values to share with friends or for your own record-keeping.
- "Reset Calculator" Button: If you want to start fresh, simply click this button to revert all inputs to their default values.
Remember, this tool provides expected values. Actual results will depend on your luck, but planning with expected values helps manage resources effectively.
Key Factors That Affect Elsword Reforge
Understanding the factors influencing the Elsword Reforge system is crucial for efficient enhancement:
- Base Success Rate: This is the most direct factor. Higher success rates (e.g., from specific scrolls or events) drastically reduce expected attempts and costs. Always check for buffs or special scrolls.
- Cost of Reforge Scrolls (ED): The market price of Reforge Scrolls directly impacts your total ED expenditure. Prices fluctuate, so buying during low periods can save millions.
- Current vs. Target Level: The number of levels you need to gain directly scales the expected attempts and costs. Going from Reforge 0 to 10 is often less costly than 15 to 20, even if the per-attempt success rate is the same, simply due to the higher cumulative attempts.
- Availability of Reforge Scrolls: Can you farm them, or must you buy them? Limited availability can make the process more expensive or time-consuming. Consider dungeon drop rates.
- Events and Buffs: Elsword frequently has events that boost reforge success rates or reduce costs. Timing your reforge attempts with these events is highly recommended to save resources.
- Failure Penalties (if any): While Elsword's reforge typically only consumes scrolls on failure without destroying the item or downgrading, some enhancement systems have harsher penalties. Always be aware of the specific mechanics.
- Item Type: While Reforge mechanics are generally consistent across weapon and armor, the *importance* of reaching higher reforge levels might differ, influencing how much you're willing to invest.
- Luck: As a probabilistic system, individual luck plays a role. You might succeed in fewer attempts or require many more. The calculator provides an average, not a guarantee.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Does the success rate decrease at higher Reforge levels?
A: In Elsword's current Reforge system, the base success rate for a given scroll type generally remains constant regardless of the item's current Reforge level. However, some special scrolls might have different rates, or events could introduce level-dependent bonuses. Always check the item description.
Q: What if I use different types of Reforge Scrolls with varying success rates?
A: This calculator assumes a single, consistent success rate for all attempts between your current and target level. If you plan to use different scrolls, you'll need to run the calculator multiple times for each segment (e.g., 0-10 with Scroll A, 10-15 with Scroll B) and sum the results.
Q: Is the "Expected Total ED Cost" a guaranteed amount?
A: No, the "expected" cost is an average based on probability. Due to the random nature of reforging, you might spend more or less ED and scrolls than the calculated amount. This tool helps you plan for the *most likely* outcome.
Q: What is the maximum Reforge Level?
A: Currently, the maximum Reforge Level for equipment in Elsword is typically 20. This calculator is designed to reflect that range.
Q: Can I lose Reforge levels on failure?
A: Generally, no. In the standard Elsword Reforge system, failures typically consume the Reforge Scroll and ED but do not cause a decrease in your item's current Reforge Level. Always verify specific scroll descriptions or event details as mechanics can sometimes vary.
Q: How accurate is this Elsword Reforge Calculator?
A: The calculator is mathematically accurate based on the principles of expected value for independent trials. Its accuracy in predicting your personal outcome depends on the accuracy of the success rate you input and the inherent randomness of the game. It provides a strong statistical basis for planning.
Q: What are the best ways to get Reforge Scrolls?
A: Reforge Scrolls can be obtained through various in-game methods, including dungeon drops, event rewards, crafting, and purchasing from the in-game Item Mall or the player market board. Keep an eye on in-game events for boosted acquisition rates.
Q: Does Reforging affect my equipment's enhancement level?
A: No, Reforging is a separate system from basic equipment enhancement (+0 to +12/13). They both contribute to overall power, but one does not directly impact the other's levels or success chances.
Related Elsword Tools and Resources
Optimize your Elsword journey with these other helpful resources:
- Elsword Combat Power Calculator - Understand how different stats contribute to your overall CP.
- Elsword Equipment Enhancement Guide - A comprehensive guide to traditional enhancement.
- Elsword Dungeon Drop Rates - Plan your farming routes for essential materials.
- Elsword Character Build Guides - Explore optimal setups for various characters and playstyles.
- Elsword Accessories & Set Effects Guide - Maximize your stats with the right accessories.
- Elsword General FAQ - Find answers to common questions about the game.