Calculate Your Combat Probabilities
Warhammer Combat Results
Formula Explanation: This calculator works by determining the probability of success at each stage of the attack sequence (Hit, Wound, Save, FNP). It then multiplies these probabilities by the initial number of attacks and damage per wound to find the expected number of successful outcomes and total damage. Re-rolls modify the individual stage probabilities.
All values are unitless counts or probabilities, representing the average outcome over many identical attacks.
What is a Warhammer Calculator?
A Warhammer calculator is an indispensable digital tool designed for players of Games Workshop's popular tabletop wargames, Warhammer 40,000 and Warhammer Age of Sigmar. At its core, it's a specialized probability and damage calculator that helps players predict the outcomes of combat encounters between units.
In Warhammer, combat involves a series of dice rolls (D6s) for hitting, wounding, and saving. Each roll has a specific target number based on unit statistics. A Warhammer calculator automates these complex probability calculations, taking into account factors like the number of attacks, weapon skill, ballistic skill, strength, toughness, armor penetration, saves, invulnerable saves, and special rules like "Feel No Pain" (FNP) or re-rolls.
Who Should Use a Warhammer Calculator?
This tool is invaluable for:
- Competitive Players: To optimize army lists, compare unit efficiencies, and understand specific matchups before a game.
- Casual Players: To learn game mechanics, explore "what-if" scenarios, and settle disputes over expected outcomes.
- List Builders: To ensure their chosen units provide the desired damage output or resilience against common threats.
- New Players: To demystify the dice roll process and gain a deeper understanding of how different stats interact.
Common Misunderstandings (Including Unit Confusion)
A frequent misunderstanding is the expectation of exact results. While the calculator provides "expected" values, actual dice rolls will always introduce variance. The results represent the average outcome over an infinite number of identical attacks, not a guaranteed result for a single game turn.
Regarding units, Warhammer combat statistics are largely "unitless" ratios or target numbers (e.g., "3+ to hit," "Strength 4," "AP -1"). The calculator's outputs—expected hits, wounds, and damage—are also unitless counts. There are no traditional units like meters, kilograms, or currency involved. The key is to understand that these numbers represent probabilities and average counts within the game's specific ruleset.
Warhammer Calculator Formula and Explanation
The core of any Warhammer calculator lies in its ability to accurately model the sequential probability of the attack sequence. Each step builds upon the success of the previous one.
The general probability of success on a D6 roll for a target number 'X+' is `P(Success) = (7 - X) / 6`. If 'X+' is 1+, then `P(Success) = 1`. If 'X+' is 7+, then `P(Success) = 0`.
The Combat Sequence Formulas:
- Hit Rolls:
- `P(Hit) = (7 - BS/WS) / 6` (adjusted for re-rolls)
- `Expected Hits = Number of Attacks * P(Hit)`
- Wound Rolls:
- `P(Wound) = (7 - Wound Target) / 6` (adjusted for re-rolls)
- Wound Target is determined by Strength vs. Toughness:
- S ≥ 2T: 2+
- S > T: 3+
- S = T: 4+
- S < T: 5+
- S ≤ T/2: 6+
- `Expected Wounds = Expected Hits * P(Wound)`
- Save Rolls:
- `Effective Save Target = Max(2, Min(7, Base Save + AP))`
- `Final Save Target = Min(Effective Save Target, Invulnerable Save Target)` (if Invulnerable Save is present)
- `P(Save Success) = (7 - Final Save Target) / 6` (adjusted for re-rolls on 1s)
- `P(Save Fail) = 1 - P(Save Success)`
- `Expected Failed Saves = Expected Wounds * P(Save Fail)`
- Feel No Pain (FNP) / Ward Save:
- `P(FNP Success) = (7 - FNP Target) / 6`
- `P(FNP Fail) = 1 - P(FNP Success)`
- `Expected Failed FNP = Expected Failed Saves * P(FNP Fail)`
- Total Damage:
- `Total Expected Damage = Expected Failed FNP * Damage per Wound`
Re-rolls: Re-rolls modify the probability of success for a specific stage. For example, "re-rolling 1s" for a hit roll means that any 1s rolled initially get a second chance to become a hit, increasing the overall hit probability. "Full re-rolls" allow any failed roll to be re-rolled, offering an even greater boost.
Key Variables and Their Meanings:
| Variable | Meaning | Unit/Type | Typical Range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Attacks (A) | Number of dice rolled in the hit phase. | Count (unitless) | 1 - 100+ |
| BS/WS | Ballistic Skill (shooting) or Weapon Skill (melee); target D6 roll to hit. | Target D6 (e.g., 3+) | 2+ to 6+, Auto Hit |
| Strength (S) | Weapon's power, compared to target's Toughness for wound roll. | Value (unitless) | 1 - 14+ |
| AP | Armor Penetration; reduces target's armor save value. | Modifier (unitless) | 0 to -5+ |
| Damage (D) | Damage inflicted by each successful wound. | Value (unitless) | 1 - 6+ (or D3, D6 average) |
| Toughness (T) | Target's resilience, compared to attacker's Strength for wound roll. | Value (unitless) | 1 - 14+ |
| Armor Save (Sv) | Target D6 roll to pass an armor save. | Target D6 (e.g., 3+) | 2+ to 7+, No Save |
| Invulnerable Save (Invuln Sv) | Special save that ignores AP, used if better than modified armor save. | Target D6 (e.g., 4+) | 2+ to 6+, No Invuln |
| FNP | "Feel No Pain" or Ward Save; a save made after damage is inflicted. | Target D6 (e.g., 5+) | 2+ to 6+, No FNP |
Practical Examples
Let's illustrate how the Warhammer Combat Calculator can be used with a couple of common scenarios.
Example 1: Standard Bolter Marine vs. Another Marine
Imagine 10 Space Marines (BS 3+, S4, AP0, D1) shooting Bolters at another unit of Space Marines (T4, Sv 3+, No Invuln, No FNP).
- Inputs:
- Attacks: 10
- BS/WS: 3+
- Strength: 4
- AP: 0
- Damage: 1
- Toughness: 4
- Armor Save: 3+
- Invulnerable Save: No Invuln Save
- FNP: No FNP
- Re-rolls: None
- Results:
- Expected Hits: 6.67
- Expected Wounds: 3.33 (S4 vs T4 wounds on 4+)
- Expected Failed Saves: 1.11 (3+ save, AP0, so 3+ save. 1/3 fail)
- Expected Failed FNP: 0.00
- Total Expected Damage: 1.11
This tells you that 10 bolter shots will, on average, inflict just over 1 damage to a standard Space Marine. This is a unitless count.
Example 2: Powerful Anti-Tank Weapon vs. Heavy Vehicle with Re-rolls
Consider 3 attacks from a Lascannon (BS 3+, S9, AP-3, D D6 - average 3.5) against a heavy tank (T8, Sv 3+, Invuln 5+, Re-roll Hit 1s).
- Inputs:
- Attacks: 3
- BS/WS: 3+
- Strength: 9
- AP: -3
- Damage: 3.5 (average for D6)
- Toughness: 8
- Armor Save: 3+
- Invulnerable Save: 5+
- FNP: No FNP
- Re-rolls: Re-roll Hit Rolls of 1s
- Results:
- Expected Hits: 2.33 (3+ hit, re-roll 1s)
- Expected Wounds: 1.94 (S9 vs T8 wounds on 3+)
- Expected Failed Saves: 1.29 (Tank's 3+ save becomes 6+ due to AP-3. Invuln 5+ is better, so 5+ save. 2/3 fail)
- Expected Failed FNP: 0.00
- Total Expected Damage: 4.52
Here, the tank's invulnerable save is crucial, and the re-roll on hits significantly increases the chances of landing those valuable Lascannon shots. The damage is a unitless count of expected damage points.
How to Use This Warhammer Calculator
Using the Warhammer Combat Calculator is straightforward:
- Input Attacker Profile:
- Enter the `Number of Attacks` your unit makes.
- Select the `Ballistic/Weapon Skill` (BS/WS) your unit has.
- Input your weapon's `Strength` (S) and `Armor Penetration` (AP).
- Enter the `Damage per Wound` your weapon inflicts. For dice rolls like D3 or D6, use their average value (e.g., 2 for D3, 3.5 for D6).
- Input Defender Profile:
- Enter the `Toughness` (T) of the target unit.
- Select the target's `Armor Save` (Sv) and `Invulnerable Save` (if any).
- Choose any `Feel No Pain` (FNP) or Ward Save the target possesses.
- Select Re-roll Options:
- Check the appropriate boxes if your unit has rules allowing re-rolls for hit, wound, or save rolls (e.g., "Re-roll Hit Rolls of 1s," "Full Re-roll Wound Rolls"). Note that full re-rolls override re-rolling 1s for that phase.
- Calculate and Interpret Results:
- Click the "Calculate" button (or it will update automatically).
- The calculator will display `Expected Hits`, `Expected Wounds`, `Expected Failed Saves`, `Expected Failed FNP`, and the `Total Expected Damage`.
- These are average, unitless counts. A "Total Expected Damage" of 4.52 means that, on average, this attack sequence will inflict 4.52 damage points to the target.
- Copy Results: Use the "Copy Results" button to easily transfer the calculated outcomes and assumptions for sharing or record-keeping.
- Reset: The "Reset" button will restore all fields to their intelligent default values, allowing for quick new calculations.
Remember, the values are always unitless and represent probabilities and counts within the Warhammer game system.
Key Factors That Affect Warhammer Combat
Understanding the interplay of different statistics is crucial for mastering Warhammer 40,000 and Age of Sigmar combat. Here are the key factors:
- Number of Attacks (A): Directly scales the potential damage output. More attacks generally mean more hits, wounds, and ultimately, more damage. This is a linear relationship.
- Ballistic/Weapon Skill (BS/WS): Determines the base chance to hit. A lower target number (e.g., 2+) is significantly better than a higher one (e.g., 4+), especially when combined with many attacks or powerful weapons. Improving BS/WS by 1 can be a 1/6 (16.7%) increase in hit probability.
- Strength (S) vs. Toughness (T) Ratio: This is a critical comparison that dictates the wound roll target. The breakpoints (S=2T for 2+, S>T for 3+, S=T for 4+, S
- Armor Penetration (AP): Reduces the opponent's armor save. Even a small AP value (like -1) can be highly effective against units with good armor saves (e.g., 2+ or 3+), as it forces them onto a worse save roll. It effectively scales up your damage against armored targets.
- Damage per Wound (D): Multiplies the final number of successful wounds into total damage. High damage values are essential for taking down multi-wound models or vehicles. This is a direct multiplier.
- Re-rolls: These are powerful force multipliers. Re-rolling 1s provides a modest but consistent boost, while full re-rolls (e.g., "full re-roll hits") can significantly improve the consistency of your attacks, especially for units with many attacks or high damage output. They effectively increase the probability of success for a given phase.
- Invulnerable Saves (Invuln Sv): A vital defensive characteristic that ignores AP. Against high-AP weapons, an invulnerable save can be the only thing keeping a unit alive, completely negating the opponent's AP advantage. Its value is compared directly against the modified armor save.
- Feel No Pain (FNP) / Ward Saves: Provides a final layer of defense after all other saves. This can make durable units incredibly resilient, as it offers a chance to ignore damage that has already successfully penetrated armor. It scales linearly with the number of failed saves.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is "Expected Damage" and why isn't it always a whole number?
Expected Damage is the average amount of damage you would inflict if you performed the exact same attack sequence an infinite number of times. It's often a decimal because it's a statistical average of probabilities, not a guaranteed outcome from a single set of dice rolls. For example, 1.5 expected damage means that on average, you'd deal 1 damage half the time and 2 damage half the time (or similar combinations resulting in that average).
My dice rolls never match the calculator! Is it broken?
No, the calculator isn't broken! It provides statistical averages. Dice rolls are random. In any single game, you might roll exceptionally well or poorly. The calculator helps you understand long-term trends and strategic efficiency, not predict individual dice outcomes. Over many games, your results should trend towards the calculator's predictions.
How do I handle D3 or D6 damage weapons?
For D3 damage, use the average value of 2 (rolls 1, 2, 3; average is (1+2+3)/3 = 2). For D6 damage, use the average value of 3.5 (rolls 1-6; average is (1+2+3+4+5+6)/6 = 3.5). While the calculator can only take a single average value, this provides a good approximation of expected damage for such weapons.
What does "unitless" mean in the context of this Warhammer calculator?
"Unitless" means that the values (like attacks, strength, toughness, damage) are numerical representations of game statistics or counts, not measurements with physical units like meters, kilograms, or dollars. The results are counts of hits, wounds, or damage points as defined by the Warhammer rules, without any external unit system.
Why isn't there a unit switcher for different game systems (e.g., 40k vs. AoS)?
While Warhammer 40,000 and Age of Sigmar have distinct rulesets, the core combat mechanics (D6 rolls for hit, wound, save, FNP) are fundamentally similar. The calculator's inputs (Attacks, BS/WS, S, T, AP, Sv, D) are generic enough to apply to both systems. There are no "units" in the traditional sense that would require conversion between systems; it's all about comparing numerical values on a D6.
How do modifiers (+1 to hit, -1 to wound) affect the calculation?
You should input the *modified* characteristic into the calculator. For example, if your unit normally hits on 4+ but has a +1 to hit modifier, you should select "3+" for the BS/WS input. Similarly, if an enemy suffers -1 to wound, you could effectively increase their Toughness by a step to achieve the same wound roll outcome (e.g., S4 vs T4 wounds on 4+, S4 vs T5 wounds on 5+. If T4 unit has -1 to wound, treat it as T5). Alternatively, you could adjust the `BS/WS` or `Strength` values directly based on the modifier.
What happens if I select both "Re-roll 1s" and "Full Re-roll" for the same phase?
The "Full Re-roll" option takes precedence. If you can fully re-roll a phase, then re-rolling only 1s is a lesser ability and is ignored. The calculator automatically handles this by disabling the "Re-roll 1s" checkbox if "Full Re-roll" is selected for that phase, ensuring the most beneficial re-roll is applied.
Can this calculator help me build an army list?
Absolutely! While it doesn't build lists directly, it's a powerful tool for *validating* and *optimizing* your army list choices. By inputting different unit profiles, you can compare the expected damage output of various weapons against common enemy threats or evaluate the resilience of your own units. This helps you ensure your list has the right tools for the job.
Related Tools and Internal Resources
Explore more resources to enhance your Warhammer gaming experience:
- Warhammer 40k Advanced Tactics Guide: Dive deeper into strategic gameplay and battlefield maneuvers.
- Beginner's Guide to Painting Warhammer Miniatures: Learn the essential techniques for bringing your models to life.
- Warhammer Beginner's Guide: Start your journey into the grimdark future or the Mortal Realms.
- Top Warhammer Factions Overview: Discover which armies might suit your playstyle.
- Warhammer Army List Building Strategies: Master the art of crafting competitive army lists.
- Latest Warhammer Releases & News: Stay up-to-date with new models, rules, and lore.